Tag Archives: journalism

How might the incentives for (news) content to ground AI output on real-time related issues evolve?

The incentive structure around grounding AI outputs on real-time related issues looks busted, and PR and other forms of strategic communication may increasingly drown out news content if the incentives for news publishers remain unclear.

As with so many other topics around AI, the underlying issue isn’t new, exactly. PR professionals already outnumber reporters by a ratio of 6.4-to-1 in e.g. the United States.

The AI angle on that ratio is this: Every kind of strategic communication from advertising to marketing to public relations seems to be increasingly investing in “Answer Engine Optimization” (AEO) to increase their chances of featuring in and influencing output (remember, it’s only called “LLM grooming” when others do it). Meanwhile, publishers are often blocking AI crawlers in frustration over what many of them experience as increasingly rapacious extraction of their intellectual property that delivers very little of the referral traffic that underpinned the de facto content-for-reach terms of trade they acquiesced to around search engines and social media for decades, and no other clear incentives either.

Strategic communications is supply-driven, and has incentives to lean in to AI

Strategic communications broadly speaking is supply-driven and underwritten by those who have money to spend on getting their message “through the right channel, to the right person, at the right time” (as the mantra goes). AEO professionals are increasingly helping their clients do that by recommending e.g. making content that is relevant to target audiences’ likely information needs and questions, building topical authority, making the content crawlable and presented as structured data so it is easy for AI crawlers to access and extract, etc.

So strategic communicators want in to AI output, because it helps them achieve their goals. (Elsewhere, I have written about this broad and heterogenous category as “promoters”.)

Publishing is demand-driven, and the incentives are unclear

Publishing, in contrast, is demand-driven and underwritten by paying users and advertisers who want to pay to reach users. Right now, crudely put, publishers invest in content, but often don’t see any real return on that investment from AI, because AI for most of them deliver tiny amounts of referrals (the traffic from search and social that could, in the past, help sell subscriptions and generate advertising revenue), and because the vast majority of them are not paid anything by any AI company.

Referrals first. Late last year, Google delivered about 6 billion referrals to the 2,576 sites in the Chartbeat network, and Facebook about 1 billion. (Numbers from data shared with the Reuters Institute.) Of course publishers would love to be paid as well. But even in the absence of payment, most will want the referrals. By comparison, in the same period in the same population of publishers, ChatGPT delivered 4.6 million referrals, and Perplexity 449,422. That’s more than three orders of magnitude between ChatGPT and Google. Referrals from by far the most popular consumer-facing AI chatbot are only little more than 1/10 of referrals from X, themselves a rounding error of overall traffic and of limited commercial value to most publishers.

Licencing deals next. Depending on what you consider a deal there are, according to Cloudflare, about 50 or so publisher-AI agreements. That’s not nothing, and some of the individual publishers are privately or publicly happy with the deals they have. But there are thousands of major and medium-size publishers globally (WAN-IFRA alone organizes more than 3,000 news publishing companies), and tens of thousands smaller ones. Considering only the major and medium-size publishers, that means less than 2% of them have any kind of deal. Meanwhile, AI companies and the various third parties who crawl content for them are making an aggressive bet premised on the claim that all or most of this is fair use and/or transformative and/or covered by text-and-data-mining exemptions etc. etc. etc., and whether that is so or not will probably take years and millions in legal fees to establish.

Given this lack of clear incentives, it is not surprising that, according to Buzzstream, 79% of top news sites block AI training bots and 71% also block AI retrieval bots.

So many news publishers do not want to go in to AI output, because it is not clear it helps them achieve their goals, and may in fact undermine them.

What does strategic communications leaning in, and many publishers blocking, entail?

I am not suggesting all strategic communications, or other content that those behind it actively invest in and make freely accessible for AI use (as they do for many other uses) is necessarily always bad for grounding, or that publisher content is always intrinsically good for every purpose or all users, or necessarily better than alternatives from other sources. The European Union, the US National Institute of Health, NASA, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the World Bank are among the top 500 registered domains of the last main/monthly crawl from Common Crawl.

These are different kinds of public institutions that invest in content and make it available, also for AI. Many top universities also feature. Some are private, some are public, again, they invest in content that is made available, also for AI. Numerous private companies that aren’t publishers also figure on the list, all the way down to Deloitte at number 500. That’s good for AI companies, and arguably good for users.

At the same time, when it comes to news, the overall incentive structure looks kind of busted to me, at least for real-time output. It may only be a small part of overall use, and not the most important. But it is arguably still important, at least in a public sense. PR and other forms of strategic communication are accustomed to spend money, sometimes a lot of money, to get their content, their narrative, their version in front of people. Publishers, most of whom are for-profit, and others of whom are non-profits with bills to pay, try to make money from the content they offer to people. The first group can live with the current terms of trade around AI. The second group? Unclear. Over time, this does not point to a great equilibrium.

What are some possible medium-term scenarios for news?

Leaving strategic communications/PR aside and focusing on news, in terms of supply (publishers) and demand (AI companies willing to strike deals), abstractly, we can map the possibilities along two axis – few deals versus many deals, and limited value deals versus high value deals.

(“Value” here could potentially be referrals, the traditional currency of content-for-reach, but across both AI, social, video, and more platforms we seem to be moving away from referrals so unless other incentives are provided, value here would mean some kind of payment.)

That gives us four scenarios. They are not mutually exclusive, but provide a stylized sense of different landing zones. Given current dynamics, one of them (many deals/high value) seems to me to only be realistic if AI companies are basically forced to pay in some way.

So here we go –

Scenario 1 – Continuation of the status quo (few deals, of relatively limited value for most those who have them)

This is a scenario where the dominant trends are the current ones. So more PR, perhaps a growing market for content farms willing to enter on terms many other publishers find unattractive, few deals and in most cases of relatively limited value to participating publishers. (We fundamentally don’t really know what the current deals are worth, but in the cases where do, whatever other value they may hold they seem to represent incremental revenue.)

In this scenario, AI output at least around real-time issues is increasingly grounded in content that mostly comes from those willing to actively invest in making information accessible to AI companies, new AI-directed content farms driving “market for lemons” dynamics, and only subsidiarily a limited number of AI-darling publishers with deals. This is, by and large, a market that treats news as an information commodity, and, as was pointed out almost thirty years ago, information commodity markets don’t work.

Scenario 2 – “Programmatic-but-for-licencing” (Many deals, relatively limited value for most of those who have them)

Here we would see more licensing, mostly at very low rates. This would be a world where the marketplace begins to scale beyond a few dozens of often bespoke deals to include a much, much larger number of publishers. Cloudflare, one of the companies trying to build the infrastructure for such transactions, argues that a “licensing economy is emerging”, Microsoft is offering its “Publisher Content Marketplace”, Amazon has reportedly been planning one.

All of these (and several start-ups) come out of the technology industry. Meanwhile, the SPUR coalition of publishers – perhaps informed in part by publishers’ mixed experience with programmatic advertising infrastructures developed by tech companies – is, among other things, intending to “evaluate existing industry infrastructure and assess where new technologies or approaches are needed”, suggesting the possibility of a marketplace infrastructure developed from a publisher/supply side perspective rather than from a technology industry/demand side perspective.

In this scenario, licencing could work akin to programmatic advertising, something many publishers have as part of their revenue mix, even though the money involved can be limited.

Scenario 3 – AI companies as anchor customers for e.g. news agencies and a few others (Few deals, relatively high value for those who have them)

We might also see few, but much bigger deals. Here, deals continue to be the exception, but those who do get deals scale up what they offer to AI companies, and how they offer it.

It is noteworthy that news agencies – long accustomed to B2B wholesale deals with the requisite B2B technical infrastructure – feature prominently among those who have already struck deals. The three biggest ones, AFP, Associated Press, and Reuters all have one or more deals. EFE is also part of a deal. AFP and Associated Press both publish more than 300,000 text stories every year, and Reuters over 2 million, and the content is essentially all news reported to very high professional standards. (By comparison, a big general interest news title might publish something like 50,000 units, and much of this will not be news but entertainment, lifestyle, opinion, recipes, travel, etc.)

News agencies are also not unaccustomed to having a few key customers/ sources of revenue. The London Stock Exchange Group pays Reuters News $325 million per year, somewhere in the region of half of Reuters’ revenue. The French state provided AFP with €120 million in funding in 2025 as compensation for fulfilling a mission of general interest, about a third of AFP’s revenues.

Compared to AI investments projected by some analysts to exceed $1 trillion in 2026, and packages for some individual AI engineers reportedly running into the hundreds of millions of dollars, if an AI company believed exclusive access to news content would give it a competitive edge vis-à-vis its rivals, surely they would spend as freely on that as they do on talent, data, and energy? (Some primarily B2C news publishers could try to get in on this, as some have in the past operated what was effectively their own news agencies. You could also imagine vertical integration, but I suspect AI companies, conscious of the scrutiny this would draw from politicians and regulators, and the legal liabilities that would surely follow, will hesitate – Google considered this almost twenty years ago but decided against it.)

In this scenario, you might see a lot of content made available by a few respected major publishers.

Scenario 4 – something for everybody? (Many deals, relatively high value for those who have them)

Right now, I just do not see effective demand for this from the AI companies. Big or small, old or new, they do not seem to think they need lots of significant content deals to compete with one another. They do not seem to think they are under any legal or regulatory obligation to strike lots of deals. Unless that changes, that means this scenario seems to presuppose some kind of political intervention.

That’s a matter for citizens and their elected officials. Both the domestic politics (especially if a country has, or wants, AI companies) and the geopolitics (if they want to be on civil terms with the few, big countries that have AI companies) of this are complicated. But many politicians and some governments around the world are clearly signaling that they regard the current trends and status quo as problematic.

If elected officials want to do something, there are any number of possible interventions here, from facilitating collective management organizations to final offer arbitration to cultural levies to hypothecated taxes to statutory licensing regimes. Almost all would require legislation which is slow, uncertain, and relies on elected officials and the government of the day (including their willingness to tangle with, for example, a US government that has, under both for example the Obama administration and more vocally the current Trump administration, regarded much tech regulation in other countries as thinly-disguised protectionism). And as with all public policy, the devil is in the detail, and every intervention will necessarily have winners and losers, in publishing, and in society at large.

Where might each lead?

These four scenarios are not all mutually exclusive, but each foregrounds a different aspect and dynamic.

Under scenario #1, publishing arguably plays a smaller and smaller role in grounding AI output on real-time issues, leaving more and more space for the strategic communicators and PR professionals I started with. That seems to be the current direction. (Surely AI companies are at least aware of the risk this could pose to them over time?)

Under scenario #2 more publishers are paid, and the news they produce serve to ground AI output on real-time related issues, though on terms that may not be what they had hoped for. It could help reduce the relative role of strategic communications and PR, and increase supply of news, but if rates are mostly (very) low, may still be subject to the market for lemons problem.

Under scenario #3, a few publishers really scale up what they offer and how they offer it, paid for – at a completely different scale – by competing AI companies. This could supercharge existing winner-takes-most dynamics in publishing (this report points at related dynamics) and simultaneously provide a generally strong basis for grounding AI outputs on real-time issues in key markets, strengthen a few publishers, while potentially making AI a (even greater) challenge for many other publishers.

Under scenario #4, publishers probably have to rely on politicians to change the terms of trade in ways that are to their benefit – and, if done well, hopefully also serve a wider public. This one is, to an even greater extent than the others, incredibly uncertain, so who knows that that would look like (other than probably necessitating a more direct political intervention in the news media market).

What have I missed? (Other than the data here being limited so a lot of this necessarily speculative, and the majority of these scenarios mostly about the context of high-income democracies I am most familiar with, not representative of the situation and possible paths elsewhere.) Other plausible scenarios for where this goes? It is early days yet, and while there are observable dynamics, the situation remains shifting and contested. Let me know where you think it is heading.

What’s in it for me (as a member of the public)? A ‘public test’ for AI in news

I gave the closing talk at the Nordic AI in Media Summit 2026 May 27 – 28th Copenhagen, Denmark. It is an incredible event, and it was a privilege to be part of it. A video of my talk is here. The audio is a bit uneven, so below a transcript, lightly edited for clarity and with a few links to sources added.

What’s in it for me (as a member of the public)? A ‘public test’ for AI in news

Thank you very much for this opportunity to be here and learn from all of you, and also to speak today. So what I want to do today is to make a very Freudian move: ‘Enough about you, let’s talk about me.’

I want to do that in an assuming role, if you will, as an individual member of the public.

I’ll do it on the basis of research that I’ve had the privilege of doing together with Felix Simon, who you saw on the panel before, and Richard Fletcher from the Reuters Institute at the University of Oxford.

Anything in this presentation that’s good is to the credit of Richard and Felix. And then I will go beyond that research and try to interpret what I think this might mean as we move forward, and anything in that interpretation that you think is shoddy, guesswork, or anything like that, is entirely my responsibility.

Where I want to start, as said, is with a point also made on the panel before. It is the recognition that the value of any kind of news – tech enabled or not, more or less tech enabled – is in large part in the eye of the beholder. It’s a relationship between what you do – the content and service you provide – and then people like me, members of the public.

That point is important for our discussions here today because it means that realizing the full potential of AI in media is only in part about how you all judge it, and at least as much about how all of us as members of the public and what we make of that.

We know that this relation is essential, irreducibly important. How it will evolve in a changing ecosystem, we don’t know, but I will say that my hypothesis is different from the provocation that Felix offered before. I think that trust will grow more important as a differentiator.

So content may be commoditized, but I don’t believe that connections will be commoditized. But this is a hypothesis at this stage.

The way I want to evolve these ideas or offer them up for your considerations to sort of say, okay, we have heard from and now we will turn to us, the public.

Public perception of AI use and AI implications across sectors

So how do we do that? I’ll share some slides here based on survey research I did with Felix and Richard. This is based on representative samples of internet users in a range of countries across the world. I’m happy to share the details. The point here is not the details. I’m happy to discuss methods, but the presentation is not about methods. So bear with me when I go through this quite quickly to set up the interpretation that I hope will be generative for you, in an intellectual sense, as you think about how to do your job when you return to your day job tomorrow morning.

The first thing I think we can say confidently now after two years of doing this kind of survey research is that people tend to think that AI generated news and AI assisted news will be less trustworthy and cheaper for you to make.

So good for your proprietors, not so good for me as a member of the public.

We also know, I think now, after two years of doing this research, that people tend to assume that news media already use AI quite a lot.

So large shares of respondents in the survey when we were in the field last year said that they believe news media use AI often or always in their work. I think third only after search engines and social media companies.

Now in this room, yes, there are lots of video organizations we’ve seen who have really have integrated AI elements in many steps of the workflow and used them continuously.

But we can also step outside of this room and recognize that may not be the case in industry as a whole. Perhaps there is an assumed use of AI that in fact exceeds the actual role of AI in the industry as a whole.

So people seem to assume that the industry uses AI quite a lot.

But when we ask them what they think it will mean for their experience of news, a plurality believe that the use of AI in the news industry will make news worse for them.

Using these two data points – on assumed use and expectations, what it will mean for each of us individually as members of the public – we can create a chart like this, where we have on one axis, the assumed scale of use of AI in a particular sector of society, and the other one, the share of the public who believe that AI use will make their experience of engaging with the sector better.

Thus there are some sectors, politicians and political parties, for example, where people don’t really think they’re using AI or that much and also have pretty dim expectations about what it might mean to them.

There are sectors like science, where I happen to work myself, where people don’t think science is used to stuff all that much yet, but they have pretty high expectations what it might mean for their engagement with science.

Then you have news media high assumed use, pretty skeptical assumptions about what it would mean for us as members of the public.

And in the top right quadrant social media companies and the unnamed dot up there are search engine companies where people assume – probably rightly – that these tools are used extensively and also are more optimistic about what it means for us as members of the public than they are when it comes to your work as news organizations.

Interpreting public skepticism of AI use in news media

Why? Why do so many have such a skeptical view of your use of AI in the news media?

Often while simultaneously having more trust in and higher expectations for other sectors’ use of AI, including sectors that many of us and many of you, I think, have a sort of grounded skepticism of.

Here I necessarily need to move beyond the data and start to interpret it, but I will offer I think at least one thing that we can consider one potential heuristic or input into people’s interpretation of this, which is as an industry and as a profession, we are pretty good at drawing attention to it when we fuck up.

Just using only examples of organizations I personally respect and who have fessed up and stood up and sort of taken on the chin when there’s been something – so I use these as examples of what I think is a courage in time of uncertainty not to put anyone on the spot – here at Politiken last year the newspaper published a fact box that turned out to be curiously void of facts generated by, according to the paper, essentially a user error in terms of how an internal tool was deployed. There was a taking responsibility for it.

Another upmarket, generally a highly trusted title, also here in Denmark, then a little while later ran a long op-ed piece by a political party’s leadership. It turned out to contain multiple entirely fabricated supposed quotations attributed to rival politicians. This had not been discovered, neither by the political party nor by the publisher. Again, they stood up and took it on the chin and apologized.

We have my dear friend Melissa Bell from Chicago Public Media. The Chicago Sun-Times, published a AI-generated book list that involved imaginary titles. Melissa stood up and took responsibility and tried to explain how to move forward from that.

And also, of course, the New York Times has had a recent brush with this earlier this month, where an article turned out to contain a remark that was attributed to the leader of the opposition in Canada, but turned out it was an AI-generated summary of his views about Canadian politics that had been presented as a quotation to the journalist in question.

Again, I’m not putting people on the spot. I’m just saying, you know, we have these moments that really are not our best selves, and responsible organizations step up and admit it and explain it, and try to move past it.

And if they don’t, we’re lucky that the answer to the old question from Plato of ‘who guards the guardians’ is that the Guardian guards the guardians.

So if you don’t step up, you can be sure the Guardian will be ever vigilant.

So we have plenty of justified, negative, and fairly high profile attention that we draw to our industry and our professions own uses of AI.

Unlike the technology industry which tends to be conspicuously using AI, relentlessly optimistic about what it will mean for me as an end user, and the rest is sort of hidden in the corners or left to the Guardian and a few others to draw attention to.

It’s a very different way for different industries or professions to talk about how they’re rolling this out and what it might mean for me.

The old journalistic adage that we don’t cover the planes that land also seems to apply to our own profession and own industry’s use of AI.

We don’t talk very much about what’s working, we talk an awful lot about both our own failures and our peers’ failures.

And we do this in a context where people assume we’re using these tools and don’t think they’re going to be in their benefit, even though it may make it cheaper to produce content.

Four possible responses to public skepticism to AI use in news media

So how do we move on from here?

That’s your problem, not mine.

But I think research can at least offer an interpretation of different possible responses.

So I’ll do some stylized possible responses to this context that I think you’re operating when it comes to the public’s relationship to you and your use of AI and different tools.

I’ll map them out on two stylized axes. These are ideal types. Of course, nothing would ever be so clean and neat as this, but hopefully still useful to think about it.

One axis is essentially whether you are less of a user or more of a user, whether you plan to increase your use or perhaps in some cases constrain or even reduce your use of AI, which there are some companies who are saying that they will do, including in other sectors.

And the other axis is whether you are explicit about telling a story about how you’re using AI and really leaning into publicizing and communicating that story, or whether you’re using the tools implicitly and accepting that as a consequence, people will interpret that, what this might mean for their relationship with your journalism on the basis of other signals than what you provide them.

So with this, I think we can sort of name them.

One, I have called sort of ‘resigned journalism’, which is, I’m sorry it’s a bit of a negative phrase, but I couldn’t really think of a better way of putting, essentially what is saying, well, we’re going to continue to do what we’ve been doing since essentially the 19th century, if I can be a bit blunt, and we’re just going to hope that it works, and we’re not really going to make a fuss and a hue and a cry about how we do it that way. We’ll just carry on with this as usual and hope that that gets us we’re not going to lean into the tools and we’re not going to tell any exciting stories about this. I don’t think anyone see themselves in this, but i think this is the reality of some organizations, at least from the outside I think we can describe them this way perhaps uncharitable, but nonetheless.

Then we have what we might think of as ‘furtive AI journalism’ where you’re leaning into the tools you’re using them more and more you’re integrating them in particular back end and lots and lots of different things. But you’re not telling anyone about it, other than maybe a little sort of greyed out AI summary little note here and there.

And yes, if you click enough, perhaps you’ll find something somewhere on the website where you have your principles for use of AI, but there’s no explicit proactive effort to communicate how and why you are using AI more and more in your organization.

Then you have what we might think of as ‘romantic journalism’. This of course was the manifesto launched in Perugia, for those of you who were there at the International Journalism Festival by Lea Korsgaard from Zetland here in Denmark and Josh Herman from Mill Media in the UK, which is a nuanced view. So I don’t want to sort of suggest that it’s in any way opposed to technology, but I do think it’s a view that regards AI in journalism as something that needs to be carefully contained and primarily used for back-end things and is extremely explicit about positioning themselves as such. If you write a manifesto, you have an explicit communication strategy, let’s put it like that. And you’re also very conscious of drawing a contrast between you and your competitive set – the other publishers – who may be less romantic than what this perspective or response looks like.

And then we have a fourth one, which is why I think it was about ‘modernist journalism’.

So if the romantics believe that there are timeless things that we are at risk of losing touch with and we need to make a conscious choice to reconnect with those timeless values and see technology primarily as something that underpins those timeless values.

The modernist view would be – as is modernism in some forms of architecture, art, and literature – would be the view that our best selves are in the future and they are enabled by technology.

I think that people who come to an event like this are probably primarily drawn to this.

But I would also put to you that – while we talk about it here, and there are sort of various ‘how do we use AI’, you know, items on websites and Perugia talks and other things – the people who aspire to some sort of modernist vision of AI-enhanced journalism are perhaps not telling the story of it, or at least not cutting through the story of it to the same extent as some of the other voices in the industry and the profession, let alone in public life.

Because this is the forum that it is, without discounting the potential of romantic journalism, or without judging anyone for other responses that may be dictated by circumstances that are less benign or privileged, shall we say, than some of the people in the room here – because of the context that we’re in, I think it’s probably the modernist view that’s most interesting to sort of do a little bit more on before I wrap up.

How might one think about earning trust in AI use in news media?

So if one were to aspire to be a modernist journalist, and if one did believe that our best selves are ahead of us and are enhanced by technology, enabled by technology, but also recognize that trust is going to be central in realizing the full value of this, and connections and credibility are an incredibly important part of managing to connect with people in an ever more competitive media environment.

Then, if you want to use AI, and want to earn, maintain, and perhaps deepen public confidence in how you use that AI as part of your journalism, as part of your editorial operation, as part of your business, your distribution, we can go back to research we already have that speaks to how one builds trust.

This chart is drawing on earlier research led by Benjamin Toff – that also involved a team of colleagues – it’s just a sort of a slide to remind us when we talked in that research to journalists about what matters for public trust in news and then talk to members of the public in different countries, people in different backgrounds, different communities.

Yes, there is some overlap. It is a Venn diagram sort of thing to come up in both types of conversations. But also significant differences. And if you are particularly interested in the question of public trust in journalism, professional trust in one another is also important, but public trust in journalism, I think it’s really important to recognize that a lot of the things that citizens talk about when they talk about what from their point of view in general, trust in journalism or news, it’s not necessarily the same as the things that are top of mind from the point of view of journalists.

For example, journalists talk a lot about transparency.

Very rarely does that come up in interviews and focus groups, where people talk much more about, am I familiar with this brand? They talk about relevance, is it something that demonstrably help me in my everyday life? They talk about bias and impartiality, which often is community founded, more than ideologically founded, which you remember, most people do not think of politics in left-right terms, they think more of us and them. So it’s more about, is this a title that is aligned with or at least open to me and people like me – my experiences my view of the world do they respect represent and reflect the community that I am part of. That’s very easy for people like me to say ‘yes’ to because people like me have both made the news spin in the news and enjoyed the news for a long time. But a lot of people don’t have that privilege.

These are things that have little if anything to do with technology. But they are things we know from research can help engender trust. So maybe these are also important parts of your journey with AI, if you want to deploy it in a way that is not furtive, but modernist. Explicit about how you think this benefits not only you, but also me and other citizens.

The ‘public test’ for AI news – what’s in it for us?

So I will end simply with this – it is so good that we are all able to be here. As many have said before now, I’ll say it again. We owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to the organizers and instigators of this gathering in addition to all of you giving one another the gift of your time and your expertise and conversations.

It remains really important that a professional community of practice continues to judge one another’s work and set standards for one another. And Kasper has given us one example of that. The ‘pøsevogn-test’, right, whether these tools can sort of capture, reproduce and create cultural specificities of language, of representation, of the like.

I mean, there are many ways of doing this. We have standards in the community, and that’s important. There’s nothing that I want to take away from that.

But equally important, perhaps even more important, I would say, at least for the next stage of the journey, I think, are the rest of us, right? Not just you, but also me and millions more like me.

Because it’s only one leg, the professional judgement of trust, of what value and trust looks like – and probably not the most important one, honestly.

So I would suggest as a compliment to ‘pølsevogns-testen’ the ‘public test’ for AI news.

As you move forward with your work in this, you are all very well positioned and in a community of practice that can help you judge what’s in AI news for you.

But you need to convince me and a multitude of other members of the public of what’s in it for us.

So I don’t have a sticker to give you. But if I had a sticker to give you, it would be this.

And I would encourage you to keep it at hand as you think about how you develop and deploy AI in news, if you want to.

Thank you very much.

2026 Digital News Report out

The data and analysis published in the 2026 Digital News Report, lead author Jim Egan writes, points to “greater volatility, reflecting this heightened sense of uncertainty. We see a range of responses: anxiety, disengagement, and cynicism, but also openness to new sources and formats, and continued belief in what news at its best can offer.”

For the first time this year, social media and video networks are, on average across the markets covered, more popular than both TV and owned news websites and apps as sources of news.

In parallel, the formats that platforms prioritize and users engage with are growing in importance – for the first time, a majority of people now watch online news video in all 48 Digital News Report markets, and in 45 markets more people now watch online news video than watch broadcast TV news. This growth in online video consumption is all happening on third party platforms. Mainstream news organisations have on average seen video consumption on their own sites and apps go backwards, down 5pp this year.

The news – broadly defined, and necessarily in the eye of the beholder – that people get via platforms is from many different sources, including often, but far from always, news media organizations. Around a quarter (27%) of respondents globally get some news from news-focused individual creators or influencers, and almost half (46%) get some news from creators of any type. This, importantly, does not necessarily happen at the expense of news media organizations. In fact, those who access creators consume more traditional media than the average respondent.

All this, and much, much, more, in the full report, by lead author Jim Egan, Craig T. Robertson, Amy Ross Arguedas, Nic Newman, myself, Mitali Mukherjee, and Richard Fletcher.

2025 Digital News Report out

“Alternative media voices often have a wide reach and appeal to audiences that news publishers have been keen to engage with but the report also shows that, when it comes to underlying sources of false or misleading information, online influencers and personalities are seen as the biggest threat worldwide along with national politicians”, Mitali Mukherjee writes in her introduction to the 2025 Digital News Report.

There are countries where news media still have a strong connection with much of the public, and where publishers have adapted well to a challenging digital media environment (including my native Denmark), but overall the report is a sobering read for the news media. As lead author Nic Newman writes: “In most countries we find traditional news media struggling to connect with much of the public, with declining engagement, low trust, and stagnating digital subscriptions.”

In the report, we document how platforms are increasingly central to how many find and access all sorts of content, including news, as well as a continued fragmentation of the platform space. There are now six networks with weekly news reach of 10% or more compared with just two a decade ago. Instagram, WhatApp, and TikTok in particular have grown in importance, whereas BlueSky still only has tiny reach amount our respondents.

While industry data suggests X is much diminished in terms of how intensely it is used, survey data on weekly use – perhaps surprisingly – suggests stable reach overall. A liberal exodus seems to have been matched by a growing number of right-wing users, and after many years of having a predominantly left-wing user base, X now has slightly more right-wing users.

In this increasingly distributed and platform-dominated environment, large parts of the public continue to be concerned about what is real and what is fake when it comes to online news – when asked what they are most concerned about, domestic politicians and online influencers/personalities top the list, in terms of platforms, concern is focused on Facebook and TikTok.

First Elon Musk and later Mark Zuckerberg has said they want to reduce how much content is subject to moderation on their platforms – while some political actors may applaud this, it is not clear the public does. A plurality in many countries say they want more harmful or offensive content removed from social media.

Finally, as generative AI is increasingly widely used, integrated into platforms, and adopted by many news publishers, we asked respondents what they think this will mean for news content – while there is some optimism AI-powered news will be more up to date and easier to understand, the topline is people expect it to be cheaper to make but less trustworthy.

All that and more in the 2025 Digital News Report, with topical chapters, country pages, interactive data, and more on the Reuters Institute website – an incredible team effort that I am proud to be part of.

What’s happening to our news?

I’m going to tell you a story about what’s happening to journalism and news media across the world. There are a lot of variations, differences between countries and organizations and communities being served. But I still think there are some big themes that we can recognize that are worth going out to recognize where we come from, where we are, and where we might go in the future.

Where we come from

So if we start with where we come from, journalism has a lot to be proud of. At its best, it’s an occupation that is committed to seeking truth and reporting. it. It provides a way of telling people stories that can make them understand other people’s experiences, but also sometimes their own experiences in a new light. It can portray the contending forces in the world so that people can relate to some of the titanic forces at play beyond our own immediate circles.

And at its best, it both aims and sometimes is in fact able to help people understand the world beyond personal experience and make the invisible world visible in a way that is profoundly empowering.

One of the reasons I do what I do is that I’ve seen so powerfully in my own family of people who in the past had little access to formal education and few of the structural privileges that we associate with bourgeois citizenship, how profoundly important journalism was in enabling them to connect with the world beyond personal experience and be active participants and shape and reshape that society in line with their own ideals and their own interests.

And there is something special about journalism that’s not unique in trying to help individuals be citizens, but often would aspire to do so in a way that is independent of the powers who actively try to reshape society in particular directions.

Whether you think of that independence in terms of an ambition to be impartial, or whether you think of that independence as being upfront and clear about your point of view or your editorial line, what those different conceptions have in common, I think, is at least a commitment to not do it on behalf of some other organized interest or force in society. This is how journalism can retain its autonomy of the many other forces at play.

This wild and varied set of aspirations gives us a way of thinking about what many journalists would like to achieve. It also gives us yardsticks by which we might judge ourselves when we fall short. Nothing is perfect, and the history of journalism is certainly not perfect either.

I think it’s also important to recognize that these are things that much of the public would like to have from journalism.

This is one of the most powerful themes in years of research that we have done at the Reuters Institute on people’s relationship with the news – much of the public has what might come across as surprisingly conventional, or in a nicer term, classical, expectations of what they would like to have from journalism.

They would like journalism to provide a way to stay up to date with what’s going on in society. They would like journalism to help them understand things that they are not themselves familiar with. They would like journalism to convey the range of different perspectives on some of the issues that we face as societies. These are aspirations that journalists have, and they are things that much of the public would like to have from journalism.

And over the years, of course, professional practice and the occupation of journalism grew up in part in pursuit of these aspirations, and in part grew up inside of media organizations and businesses that made money off of investing in this professional practice. At the dawn of the century in Berlin alone, there were well over a hundred different newspapers.

This is a very different world from the one we live in today. If we move from the profession to the business that employed these journalists, and that many of these journalists were themselves active in – we have to remember that many of the pioneers of journalism, the great reporters and editors of the 19th century and early 20th century were entrepreneurs. They were interested, yes, in the editorial side. But they were also interested in the business side that enabled editorial autonomy from the state, from political parties, from organized interests, and from other businesses.

The environment in which they thrived was an environment that, from the point of view of people such as my family – members of the public – was one where citizens had a low choice media environment, not that many ways in which they could access information about the world beyond personal experience.

As a consequence of that, those who controlled the printing presses had high market power, high market power over the public and high market power over advertisers. And this in turn produced a, in many countries, very lucrative business. Profit margins in the double digits and a sort of a veneer of stability and success that we associated with newspaper companies in particular, till relatively recently.

It is also, I think, obvious to everyone in the room that this is not the world we live in anymore. And it hasn’t been for quite a long time. But I think it’s important to start with that world because it’s so profoundly still shaped the profession of journalism and the media organizations that employ journalists. Many of them are still at least in part oriented towards the world of yesterday even as they have to navigate the world of today and tomorrow.

Where we are

So what is the world in which we live today? I mean in the simplest sense you might start with the relationship between the public and journalism and just recognize that if the world of my grandparents and parents was a world of low choice for the public, high market power for publishers, the world of today is a world of high choice for the public and low market power for publishers.

This means that the business of news is far less lucrative than it was in the past and it means that the unearned confidence that journalism had in a world in which, essentially, journalists wrote and people like my family read, has been blown out of the water because now everyone can raise their voice and many of them do that – including very critically and in ways that contend and sometimes outright attack or harass journalists.

We need to be very, very clear about where journalism sits in this fundamentally transformed media environment.

Because it is not the case that people have turned their back on the ways in which media can help you imagine a richer and more varied life than what you live yourself. In fact, people spend more time and in many cases more money on media than they did in the past.

What is the case is that the role of journalism in this more varied and from the point of view of much of the public, frankly richer and better media environment has shrunk.

We really need to be clear-eyed that every day the public is voting with its attention and with its wallet, and they are not voting for conventional forms of journalism.

The shift from the old world to the new world is not about people not having access to printed newspapers or linear scheduled broadcast channels or linear scheduled radio channels.

It is about them not choosing them when they have found things they find more satisfying and rewarding and valuable to them.

This shift has been incredibly disruptive for the business of news that journalists were employed by, even as a profession sort of drifted away from seeking to assume responsibility for the business that made journalism possible.

And the shift is actually even more challenging than just the financial crisis. Because there’s also a loss of cultural prominence in our societies that we can see in so many ways in audience research.

Every day the public is telling us things and it is up to us what we make of them and whether we want to convince them to see the world differently or whether we want to respond to what they’re telling us.

What are they telling us even as the old business of news is busy dying? Well, we see expressed levels of interest in news is in decline in much of the world. That trust in news is in decline in much of the world. That levels of active news avoidance is on the rise in many parts of the world.

And essentially, if I want to be really pointed about it, a significant and even growing part of the public, particularly younger people, people with lower levels of income, lower levels of formal education, historically poorly served minorities, in many cases women as well, are expressing in our more qualitative research – interviews, focus groups and the like – that they find that journalism irrelevant, depressing, and incomprehensible.

The public is essentially telling us every day and in growing numbers that even though they often want what journalism aspires to provide, they’re not feeling that we’re delivering it in a way that makes it worth their while to engage with us.

Think about what this means – there is a lot of concern in the industry about how can we convince people to pay for news. As a sort of a way of overcoming some of the business challenges that are consequences of these great structural transformations that I have very briefly outlined.

But in a sense, the problem is much more fundamental than convincing people to pay. The problem is that publishers are struggling to convince people to pay attention to news. And that, I would say, logically is a precondition of them before they would want to pay.

This is very clearly a crisis. It’s a crisis for the organizations that employ journalists, yes, that is a concern for their shareholders and owners. But it is also a concern for the profession of journalism, people being laid off, and many companies are really struggling to find better ways forward than just managing decline.

And it is a very real crisis for the profession, as I said, in a more profound cultural sense, of this fraying sense of public connection.

The idea that much of the public does not see journalism as providing the public value that journalism would say it is premised on providing. We may disagree with that judgment. Then there is a persuasion challenge. We may also feel that sometimes people have a sense of what they want, what they need. In those cases, I think we have a product problem.

Because we need to recognize, again, that it is a crisis for journalism and a crisis for the news industry but it’s not at all obvious that it is a crisis from the point of view of the public.

This year in the annual Reuters Institute Digital News Report when we surveyed people in 47 markets across the world, amongst the many questions we ask people was how well they felt that their different information needs were being met. You might think in a world in which many of those of us who care about journalism and the news industry increasingly are talking about news deserts and crisis of provision of factual information and the like – all of which are very real phenomena and very concerning phenomena – that the public at large would think about these challenges in similar terms.

But this is not at all the case.

The vast majority of our respondents would say on everything we asked them about that all or most of the information they needed was available to them, irrespectively of whether they paid for news or not. To them, irrespective of whether they paid for news or not. So we don’t know what we don’t know, and sometimes we have needs that we are not aware of, or informational things we would benefit from if they were available to us, even though they are not. But I think we really need to be very clear-eyed, that from the point of view of much of the public, what is happening to journals and the news is not a crisis for them – it is a crisis for us.

Where we might go in the future

That recognition is also where the work to address the crisis needs to begin, and this is where I think we need to turn from the past and the present towards the future and where I think it’s so important to recognize just the enormity of the forces that the people who will join me on the panel have found ways to navigate.

To be slightly reductionist about it, we can stylistically suggest that there are two main ways in which the industry has reacted to this structural transformation. There is what i think of as a rearguard reaction which is essentially is the view that things worked great and the problem is that the world has changed. Then there is a different view which is more of a sort of vanguard approach, which is that essentially the view that whatever things were like in the past, the problem now is that things have changed and we haven’t.

I’m not going to dwell here on whether things really were great in the past, other than just say, that even in what in sometimes in retrospect is seen as the high point of high modern journalism, a period that may look like a golden age from the point of view of those who worked in it and those who owned and ran the companies that dominated it, I think we need to be very clear that many people were very poorly served by that kind of journalism. And that the biggest difference perhaps was that they lived in a world in which most people couldn’t really find alternative sources or raise their voices in public, and now they can. But of course, it also had incredible value, and something very real is being lost as those institutions and those professional practices unravel.

So where do we go from there? I mean, if you think of these two stylized responses, I want to be clear that this is not meant to in some absolute sense judge this. Rearguard action works for some people and some communities and there is real value in the kinds of journalism that are being done and there are still declining but real business built around providing it. So it is sensible from the point of view of those people who do that work those businesses serve those audiences and those shrinking aging and ultimately dying audiences to continue with defending what, crudely put, works for me and older versions of me, what works for the highly educated, affluent, urban, engaged, willing to pay, middle-aged or older, and often in many societies, white men.

But it doesn’t work for everybody and it doesn’t work for them in the future.

With exception of a few winners in a winner-takes-most market consolidation, this form of journalism, this business, is in inexorable one-way decline. And it doesn’t work for many of the parts of the public that are most poorly served by this existing professional practice and business.

It doesn’t work for younger audiences. It doesn’t work for precisely the kinds of people that, as I said, I’ve seen in my own family history, have benefited so much from journalism in the past. People with low levels of formal education, lower levels of income and life, for whom journalism made, in a sense, the biggest difference at its best. It doesn’t work for those parts of the public, and it doesn’t work for historically underserved communities.

What these parts of the public say they want is not something that is not journalism.

As I’ve said at the outset, our research documents again and again that much of what people say they want from journalism is very well aligned with very timeless professional aspirations to seek truth and report it to provide analysis and understanding and arrange different perspectives. The problem is not that people are not interested in these things. It is that a large part of the public does not feel that we are providing it.

So what does one do then in response? I think what some of the most impressive pioneers have done whether they work in legacy titles or in startups is that they have returned to some of the thinking of the origin of the profession, but flipped it around.

So instead of thinking about what we did then, they’ve been thinking about who we did it for. They have put the public at the center of how they think about journalism and the business of news as a form of value creation.

They recognize very clearly that journalism exists in the context of its audience, that the political importance, the social significance, but also the economic sustainability of journalism as a professional practice is premised on the relationship with the public that it serves. If we lose sight of that and ignore what people are telling us, or only super serve the ones we are currently serving really well, then it is not surprising that we are losing touch with much of the public and struggling to make our businesses work. And I think that really is where we are seeing some of the most impressive and innovative work again across sometimes legacy titles and also new startups.

I want to be slightly rude here, if i may, and say that, with the greatest respect to my U.S American friends and that great citizen republic across the ocean – I don’t think the most interesting things right now are happening in the United States of America, because I think the rearguard action there takes the form of a few super successful companies over-serving people like me and then managed decline of asset-stripped companies in much of the rest of the industry. And then really, really interesting non-profit support and initiatives, yes – but initiatives that are so closely intertwined with the unique foundation and philanthropic funding environment of the United States that really does not exist anywhere else in the world. So I really think that people elsewhere should cheer on the US Americans for what they’re doing, but not always look there for inspiration.

I think far more promising and interesting things are happening across Europe, in really difficult markets – Dennik N in Slovakia, 444 in Hungary – as well as in more privileged markets. Lea is here from Zetland in Denmark, we have colleagues from Republic in Switzerland, and we see others like MediaPart in France or El Diario in Spain.

We’re seeing really impressive things. And I think there are some commonalities, and this is where we should really hear from the people who are doing the hard work, not those of us who are sort of admiring them at a distance as we analyze what’s going on.

But I think that some of the things that are happening are really about putting the public at the center of what journalism is and what the business of news is.

It’s about connecting with people. It’s about meeting them where they are in terms of their preferences for platforms, but also culturally. It’s about centering their needs and interests rather than this rather imperial “we-publish-your-read” attitude, this “we will tell people what they need to know” attitude that I think was quite widespread in the past and I think that that is where we will find the foundations from which we can build the journalism of tomorrow, a journalism that is better than the journalism that we had yesterday.

What will that look like? I don’t know!

I don’t think anyone know.

This is where Publix and you all fit into this.

I think the only way in which we can find out all the ways in which that could look is if we try looking for it, and if we wrest ourselves away from this picture that has held us captive of what journalism was and start thinking about what it might be. And I think that’s the invitation of Publix as a house and i think that is where the people who join me on stage now provide ideas, examples, inspirations that may not work for everyone or every community, but work for them and are different from what come before.

So with that, I look forward to the panellists joining me and to the conversation we can all have.

Thank you very much.

(Lightly edited transcript of my talk at the Publix opening conference September 12 2024 in Berlin, with links added to some of the underlying research. Picture by the organizers, with fellow panellists Maria Exner (Publix), Simon Jacoby (tsüri.ch), Lea Korsgaard (Zetland) and Katharina Binder (Media Forward Fund).)

2024 Digital News Report out

The 2024 Reuters Institute Digital News Report is out, documenting scale and scope of ‘platform resets’ and much more. It is a team effort by lead author Nic Newman, Richard Fletcher, Craig Robertson, Amy Ross, and myself, working with our country partners. The report covers 47 market accounting for more than half of the world’s population, and is made possible by our 19 funders. A real pleasure to chair the panel discussion at the global launch at Reuters News this morning, featuring Rozina Breen (editor-in-chief, The Bureau of Investigative Journalism), Anna Bateson (CEO of the Guardian Media Group), Rachel Corp (CEO of ITN), and Matthew Keen (Head of Operations and Strategy, Reuters).

A key theme this year is how a series of ‘platform resets’ are shaping how people access news and changing the environment publishers operate in – even as the percentage who say they get news via Facebook continues to decline, a range of other social, video, and messaging platforms are growing in importance for discovery, many focused on on-site video, visuals, and more private experiences.

Generally, many of our respondents say they find it at least somewhat easy to tell trustworthy and untrustworthy news and information apart on various platforms, but there are real differences, with more people concerned about how to navigate information on e.g. TikTok, X, Facebook.

We also document the continually fraying connection between much of the public and much of the news media industry. In many markets, trust is limited, interest in news declining, and news avoidance growing. Many of our respondents say they are worn out by the amount of news, up sharply since we last asked this question in 2019.

We know many publishers care deeply about trust in news, and in a more challenging media environment where much of the public, in many cases especially less privileged people, do not trust the news, publishers able to earn and maintain trust may be able to stand out.

In terms of what factors are important when deciding which news outlets to trust, we show that while people come to different conclusions RE individual brands, across the political spectrum from left to right, most actually emphasize the same factors. The main difference here is not by political orientation but what political scientists call “the other divide” – the large group of people who are more distant from conventional politics (and often less privileged in terms of income and education) are less sure what, if anything, would lead them to trust a news outlet.

That and much more in the full report, which is freely available here.

What does the public think of generative AI in news?

In a new Reuters Institute report, Richard Fletcher and I present an analysis of survey data from six countries.

Many of our respondents are optimistic that generative AI will make their personal lives better, views on whether it will make society better varies more, and when we look across different sectors, while people generally believe generative AI will have a large impact on almost every sector, many distrust that news media and (especially) social media companies will use generative AI responsibly.

This and more in the full report, which you can read here.

“An insistence on reflecting the world as it is, not as you wish it to be”

A privilege to host New York Times publisher A. G. Sulzberger, who gave the 2024 Reuters Memorial Lecture March 4. Among many favourite lines from his talk is this – “Journalistic independence demands a willingness to follow the facts, even when they lead you away from what you assumed would be true. A willingness to engage at once empathetically and sceptically with a wide variety of people and perspectives. An insistence on reflecting the world as it is, not as you wish it to be. A posture of curiosity rather than conviction, of humility rather than righteousness.”

And an honour to chair the subsequent panel discussion with him, Zaffar Abbas from Dawn, Melissa Bell former publisher of Vox, and Alessandra Galloni from Reuters, all of them people I deeply admire for their work and how they do it.

Full text and video of Sulzberger’s lecture here.

Summary of our panel discussion here.

New book out: “The Power of Platforms”

The Power of Platforms: Shaping Media and Society, my new book with Sarah Anne Ganter is out now with Oxford University Press.

Our core argument is that the power of platforms is deeply relational and based on ability to attract end users and partners like publishers.

It’s always hard to summarize extensive empirical work briefly, but here a few key points from my short Twitter thread on the book, with a few pics of some central passages in the book.

Platforms do not control the means of production, but the means of connection, and they are powerless without partners. To understand their power we need to understand both reservations partners have and why they often embrace platforms nonetheless, continue to work with them.

Platform power is an enabling, transformative, and productive form of power—and power nonetheless, tied to institutional and strategic interests of platform companies, often exercised in highly asymmetric ways.

It goes beyond hard and soft power. We identify five main aspects.

In the short run, actors make choices, in the long run, these choices become structures. Both platforms and partners have agency here, but there is a huge asymmetry between the biggest platforms (facing a few big platform rivals) and a multitude of much smaller publishers.

We approach platform power through an institutionalist lens, and focus on how it is exercised in relational ways through socio-technical systems that develop path-dependency and momentum over time and retain an imprint of their founding logics that shape ongoing interactions.

Our analysis is based on interviews across several countries, observation, background conversations, as well as on-the-record sources and more. In the methods appendix we reflect on individual and institutional positionality, including differences between the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism where I work and much of the research was done, and Simon Fraser University where Sarah now works.

The evolving relationships between platforms and publishers speaks to fundamental feature of the contemporary world – that not only individual citizens, but also social and political institutions, are becoming empowered by and dependent on a few private, for-profit companies

Very proud of the advance praise from colleagues with experiencing working in publishing companies, for platforms, as well as some leading academics researching digital media, including from Vivian Schiller, Nick Couldry, and José van Dijck. It means a lot to me personally to read what they kindly had to say about the book in advance of publication!

The research for this book was made possible by the prize money from the 2014 Tietgen Award, which funded Sarah’s position as a postdoctoral research fellow at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism and the associated research costs.

We would like to thank first of all our interviewees and everybody else who has talked to us, joined off-the-record discussions we hosted, invited us to events, and let us sit in on meetings. The book would not have been possible without them sharing their perspectives, and whether they agree with our analysis or not, we hope they recognize the processes they are part of in what we write about here.

In addition, many different colleagues and friends have provided generous (and often challenging!) feedback as we worked on this, including David Levy, the former Director of the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, and our many good colleagues there. Special thanks go to Chris Anderson, Gina Neff, Joy Jenkins, and Lucas Graves, who went through an entire draft manuscript with us and provided invaluable input. Daniel Kreiss and the anonymous reviewer helped further sharpen our thinking, and the series editor Andrew Chadwick went above and beyond in helping us develop our ideas. Fay Clarke, Felix Simon, and Gemma Walsh all did an outstanding job as research assistants at various stages of the project. Angela Chnapko at Oxford University Press masterfully guided us through the publication process.

Fact-based hope for journalism

We sometimes compare the multitude of intersecting challenges journalism faces to the global climate crisis. In the process of thinking about the climate crisis, I have come across the notion of fact-based hope, something I think applies to journalism too.

It’s about how we can be – and have evidence to be – resolutely hopeful even in the face of severe challenges.

This post is about fact-based hope for journalism, and inspired by the amazing Reuters Institute journalist fellows we host, including the most recent cohort (pictured after a day full of evidence-based optimism!).

The Michaelmas 2021 cohort of Reuters Institute journalist fellows discussing fact-based hope

As with the climate crisis, anyone who hasn’t recognized the so-called “burning platform” in journalism is in denial.

Ignoring or actively distracting from the conflagration – created by the combination of analogue business models disrupted by audiences’ move to digital media and the rise of platforms, much more intense competition for attention and advertising in an high-choice online media environment, and the often fraying “public connection” between much of journalism and much of the public, in many countries compounded by powerful people who wage little less than a war on independent news media and those who seek truth and report it – is doing the profession, the industry, and the public a disservice. On closer inspection, there never really was a ‘golden age’, but in any case, there is no going back. Business as usual is suicidal.

* * *

But as with the climate crisis, we cannot and should not let the scale, scope, and complexity of the challenges ahead lead to paralysis, let alone resignation.

Fact-based hope is about how we might move beyond the crises we face.

So let’s be clear: there are both systemic, policy-level and more individual, organizational-level things we can do to create the different kinds of journalisms we want in the future.

The systemic things are largely political choices, up to citizens and the elected officials who represent them. We have many options based on evidence or at least with proof of concept, and while not cheap, uncontroversial, or without downsides, it is important to clearly state we can choose, as societies, to create a more enabling environment for the freedom, funding, and future that journalism needs. (I’ve written about that extensively here, here, here and elsewhere.)

But the more individual, organizational-level things are worth highlighting in parallel. Just as the climate crisis calls for both systemic and more granular responses, so too with the many challenges facing journalism. The need for systemic change does not mean we shouldn’t think about more individual and organizational-level change too.

That is especially important because large-scale systemic change for the better seems unlikely when it comes to journalism. There is no question policy can make a difference for the better (just as it very visible makes a difference for the worse in many countries when used for e.g. media capture). But will it? These are at best long-term responses, and in most countries face uncertain political prospects. As I’ve said before, I think we need to keep in mind that, realistically, most politicians around the world regard independent journalism at best with benign indifference, more often with rank hypocrisy, and very often with open hostility. Media policy, like all other forms of policy, is made by the politicians we have and will be used by those we get, it is not the exclusive province of the particular politicians each of us may personally prefer. We may hope that politicians will rally en masse to make a meaningful commitment to support journalism (despite the fact that there currently does not seem to be much public support for it). But I don’t think we have fact-based hope that they will.

So I am all for looking at evidence-based options for systemic change.

But, in parallel, I think we need to identify individual, organizational-level examples that can inspire fact-based hope.

* * *

And all around me, I see not just crises, but also evidence for fact-based hope.

The practice of journalism first – in addition to countless reminders of the continued importance of classic investigative journalism and the trust whistleblowers have in news media helping the public understand major issues we face, outstanding individual examples of science journalism during the pandemic, and illustrations of the importance of basic factual reporting, we see more and more examples of collaboration in a historically a competitive ethos so strong it risked being “institutionally perverse” (whether around big international investigations or issues like climate change), data journalism, fact-checking, open-source intelligence, transparency in reporting, and a recognition of the value of citizens bearing witness. It’s also clear that new tools have brought greater efficiency to reporting, and that small teams sometimes deliver more public interest journalism than far larger newsrooms – by being more focused, and sometimes braver.

The business of journalism second – it’s brutal out there, and few winners, many losers, but increasingly it seems the winners are not only some upmarket legacy titles but also some membership and subscription based digital born news media. After years of pretty unrelenting bad news, we are seeing some new investments in local news too, and some ad-supported popular titles at least in Europe have built huge online reach serving a far more diverse audience than often upper-crust-oriented subscription and membership-based titles. In addition to editorial collaborations, we are also seeing some publishers collaborate on the business side. And while limited and uneven, there is also a growing number of non-profit media and new ideas of how to support them. Finally, it’s also important to see that digitally-oriented titles often invest a far greater share of their revenues in journalism than legacy titles ever did – we can get more journalistic bang even if there may well be fewer bucks.

The public connection between journalism and the people it serves third – the coronavirus crisis has provided a reminder of the importance of trustworthy news. We have seen trust in news overall increase in many countries, we have seen some evidence more trusted brands seem to have grown their online reach more than others, research documents that news has helped people understand the crisis (just as it helps them understand politics). The way some journalists think about this connection is also evolving – with more emphasis on community engagement, a willingness to consider impact a measure of success, and a greater openness to using data to understand the audience. We are also seeing a greater recognition that unrelenting focus only on things that go wrong in the world (“negativity bias”) can turn people off the news, and an openness to think of constructive and solutions-oriented elements to journalism.

The profession of journalism itself fourth and finally – I’ve written before about tensions in journalism between vanguards who think the problem is that journalism hasn’t changed enough and rearguards who think the problem is that the world has changed too much. I think these conflicts are playing out across many issues – climate, diversity, political coverage, technology, and more. These arguments are in themselves a cause for fact-based hope – the alternative to conflict is the continuation of the status quo, and that doesn’t strike me as sustainable. Disagreements within the profession are never comfortable or easy, but they are important, and I think we are seeing some important progress, from big, public reckonings with journalism’s record on race to more internal, incremental work to do better on various forms of diversity.

* * *

More than anything, across all four areas, I draw hope from how I see many journalists find one another in these discussions, whether in informal networks, professional associations, or unions, and face them with courage (insisting on the importance of change), curiosity (even if we don’t always know, in advance, exactly what we want), and community (we need to work together to get to where we need to be).

If we look at all these cases for fact-based hope and ask “will they work for all news media everywhere?”, the answer is clearly no. There is no single capital-S solution and no single capital-P problem.

But if we look at them and ask “will they work for some?” the answer is clearly, demonstrably, evidently “yes!” That provides the basis for hoping they can work for some others in some other places.

If we look at these examples and ask “will all journalists and all news media everywhere want to learn from these examples?” the answer is also clearly no.

Sometimes its because they may be a poor fit. That’s as it should be. Not everyone will want to walk the same paths.

Sometimes it is because, let’s be clear, some parts of journalism and some parts of the news media industry aren’t all that interested in changing. That’s in a way understandable, as long as we are clear-eyed that this is a choice, and that it too has consequences. In journalism as with the climate crisis, action and change can be difficult, but inaction has its own cost.

Sometimes some journalists and some in parts of the news industry want change, but some of their colleagues, perhaps their bosses, don’t want change, or disagree about the direction of change – as I’ve written before, we need to face up to the fact that this is sometimes about power and self-interest as much as about different ideals or hopes for the future.

But we clearly can change, even in the face of the many, serious challenges journalism faces – there are inspiring real-world examples all around us, and I’m so inspired by how the fellows we host in Oxford engage with them, from Adele’s work on collaboration and climate coverage, to Peter’s work on business models to protect editorial independence, to Zoe’s work on diversity, to Ramisha’s work on how journalists can learn from one another and many more.

I think fact-based hope points to many different paths ahead, and I think it provides an antidote to resignation, a position between the equally misleading extremes of facile pessimism and facile optimism. Fact-based hope is not about denying the multiple crises journalism faces. It is about responding to them.

Let me end with a quote from Varshini Prakash, co-founder and executive director of the Sunrise Movement organizing to fight the climate crisis in the United States.

“The biggest mistake we all make”, she says, “is in trying to jam hope down each other’s throats without giving the space and time for us to feel the full embodied response of what is happening.”

“Hope honestly comes from the action that I both see myself and those around me taking on a daily basis.”

“Hope”, she says, “lies in action.”

Prakash is not oblivious to the (climate) challenges we face. But she knows that hope is a necessary part of facing them.

I think that goes for journalism too. And I think we have evidence to support fact-based hope.

So I am hopeful.